I. Overview
From September 2024 to April 2025, China’s foreign trade demonstrated steady growth despite challenges such as sluggish global economic recovery. The implementation of policies to stabilize trade, coupled with the resilience and vitality of China’s domestic economy, contributed to significant improvements in both the scale and quality of trade.
II. Monthly Data Analysis
(1) September 2024
Exports: In USD terms, exports grew by 2.4% year-on-year (YoY), a sharp decline from August’s 8.7%, due to weakened external demand, a high base effect from the previous year, extreme weather, global shipping disruptions, and preemptive exports ahead of anticipated U.S. East Coast port worker strikes.
Imports: YoY growth slowed to 0.3% (from 0.5% in August), reflecting gradual recovery in domestic demand.
(2) October–November 2024
Exports: Growth rebounded to 8.7% in October and surged to 18.1% in November, driven by overseas inventory restocking, delayed deliveries of backlogged orders, and easing monetary tightening by central banks in some countries.
Imports: Growth accelerated to 4.9% and 11.2% in October and November, respectively, indicating stronger domestic economic activity and inventory replenishment.
(3) December 2024
Exports: Surged by 19.6% YoY, the highest since February 2023, supported by the fulfillment of backlogged orders, seasonal global demand, and price factors.
Imports: Increased by 9.7% YoY, reflecting further recovery in domestic demand and expanded production.
(4) January–April 2025
Exports: Declined by 11.2% (Jan–Feb), 7.3% (March), and 8.7% (April), due to weak global demand, insufficient external orders, and a high base effect from 2024.
Imports: Fell by 7.2% (Jan–Feb), 5.7% (March), and 7.0% (April), highlighting the need to bolster domestic growth momentum.
III. Key Trading Partners
(1) Belt and Road Countries
In 2024, trade with Belt and Road partners reached ¥22.07 trillion (+6.4% YoY), accounting for over 50% of China’s total trade. ASEAN remained China’s largest trading partner for five consecutive years, with trade growing by 9% in 2024.
(2) EU and the U.S.
EU: Bilateral trade rose by 1.6% in 2024, with notable growth in trade with France (+2%), Spain (+4.5%), and Hungary (+12.9%). However, exports to the EU dropped by 12.8% in Jan–Apr 2025 due to shrinking European demand and high inflation.
U.S.: Trade grew by 4.9% in 2024 but fell by 15.7% in Jan–Apr 2025, impacted by global demand weakness and lingering trade frictions.
(3) Emerging Markets
Trade with Latin America, Africa, Central Asia, and Central/Eastern Europe grew by 7.2%, 6.1%, 7.2%, and 7.5%, respectively. Emerging markets contributed nearly 60% to China’s trade growth during the period.
IV. Key Commodity Trade
(1) Exports
Mechanical and Electrical Products: Exports rose by 8.7% in 2024, accounting for 59.4% of total exports. High-end equipment exports surged by over 40%, while EV exports exceeded 2 million units (+13.1%).
Labor-Intensive Products: Growth slowed to 0.5% in 2024, with their share in total exports dropping to 14.5%.
(2) Imports
Bulk Commodities (Jan–Apr 2025): Iron ore imports rose by 1.5% (380 million tons), crude oil by 7.5% (180 million tons), while coal imports fell by 7.6% (130 million tons).
Automobiles: Imports dropped by 17.3% (327,000 units).
V. Trade Structure
General trade accounted for 57.9% of total trade in 2024 (+5.9% YoY), reflecting enhanced trade autonomy and industrial upgrading.
VI. Key Trade Entities
In 2024, nearly 700,000 businesses engaged in foreign trade generated ¥43.85 trillion in total trade (+5.01% YoY). Private enterprises remained the backbone, showcasing strong adaptability and resilience.
Conclusion
The fluctuations in trade data are closely tied to both domestic economic vitality and global economic trends. These insights provide a clearer picture of China’s foreign trade performance over the past eight months.
